Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
