Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.
During that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.
The Shift of Stance and Closed Issues
Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Document & Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter and The Echo from the Past
This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Risk and A Wise Memory
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
